This paper analyzes the factors determining the growth in car ownership in Spain over the last two decades. A discrete choice model is estimated at three points in time: 1980, 1990, and 2000. The paper compares the two alternative decision mechanisms used for modeling car ownership: ordered-response versus unordered-response mechanisms, and concludes that, on the basis of forecasting performance, the model and the ordered probity model are almost identical. The Changing car ownership Spain empirical results show that income elasticity is not constant and declines as car ownership increases. Besides, households living in rural areas are less income sensitive than those living in urban areas. Car ownership is also sensitive to the quality of public transport for those living in the largest cities. The results also confirm the existence of a generation effect, which will vanish around the year 2020, a weak life-cycle effect, and a positive effect of employment on the number of cars per household. Finally, the change in the estimated coefficients over time reflects an increase in mobility needs and, consequently, an increase in car ownership. The study also quantifies the relative importance of each contributing factor to car ownership growth.
Whose Narrative is it Anyway? Narratives of Social Innovation in Rural Areas – A Comparative Analysis of Community-Led Initiatives in Scotland and Spain
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